Higher education is facing intense and disruptive changes. Governments are ramping up the pressure by letting in new operators. Many new services are filling in the gaps left by traditional providers - placement services, career counselling, last mile grooming, completing the graduates for the jobs, tutoring in soft skills etc. Online learning is growing more rapidly that in-person and in-campus. HE is also facing much soul searching about priorities - local, global, glocal; research or teaching. The research-biased ranking and reputation building is raising concerns about erosion of teaching quality.
The pandemic has exposed the soft underbelly of the institutions - reliance on international students. Many institutions are in deep financial distress. UK, Australian, Malaysian HEIs are looking for state support. So far not much help has been forthcoming. Up to 100 colleges in Malaysia are expected to close shop. According to CHEA (USA), about 5000 colleges in US are reportedly facing imminent collapse. Education Investment groups are lapping up collapsing colleges hoping to built capacity for the recovery.
2021 will still be a painful year. 2021 might offer some glimmer of hope with vaccinations coming onstream and people starting to travel. International students are still bent on in-campus and in-person studies. The online learning thus far has been a solitary and unhappy experience. All universities have invested in online learning and see a significant role of online in future deliveries. Online learning for in-campus students offers flexibility but it does not extend the market for the offerings. Will institutions make a play for the online version or market?
Western universities with a strong internationalisation strategy and experience are likely to exploit the forced online experience to tap into an yet another market - those who like foreign degrees but cannot afford the steep residential costs and the working adults. Some institutions have offered distance learning programmes directly or in collaboration with local partners. Will they become more aggressive in online learning? There is one thing that will stand in their way. Most Asian and African governments, employers, parents and students do not think of distance learning as comparable to the in-person and in-campus type. But this perception is slowing thawing.
Besides greater deployment of online learning, what might change? Flexible employment strategies might rise to the fore. Universities with high levels of casual faculties and staff were able to adjust their resources to the drop in enrolment and revenues. Universities might see AI and technology as way to improve their capacity without relying on new faculty. The legal departments are busy studying the rules and laws to ensure, never will they be caught by a similar crisis. The force majeure clauses are going to be big and in bold. Do we expect any serious changes in the way universities are organised? The university structure has been the most resilient aspect of the HEI.
So changes, yes. Re-invent, not likely. Re-imagine, even more remote.